NEWSLETTER — Crime at Historic Lows: 2024 FBI Data Shows Major Declines
Friends,
There is some encouraging news to share: newly released FBI data on crime in the United States in 2024 shows a sweeping decline in crime across the country, with every majorcategory—both violent and property crime—experiencing drops to levels not seen since the 1960s.
Yes, crime in 2024 was down across every single category and population group measured.
This historic low marks a significant moment in public safety, with communities across the country, by the numbers, safer than they’ve been in more than half a century.
Below, we’ll take a closer look at the data, explore what it tells us, and review what experts are predicting for 2025.
2024 Crime Numbers
One of the most notable findings in the report is the significant drop in the nation's murder rate. In 2024, it fell by nearly 15% compared to 2023 and is down 26% from 2020. Overall, violent crimedeclined by an estimated 4.5%, to 359.1 crimes per 100,000 people, the lowest national violent crime rate recorded since 1969.
Property crime also saw a sharp decline, falling 8.1% to 1,760 crimes per 100,000 people, the lowest rate since 1961. Motor vehicle theft dropped 18.6% in 2024, the largest single year decline ever recorded.
So what could this mean for 2025? Renowned crime data analyst Jeff Asher has been meticulously tracking real-time crime data on his Substack, and confirms that his own statistics for 2024 very closely match the newly released FBI data for the year. If this holds true in 2025 data as well, Asher predicts that 2025 is on trend to mark the lowest murder rate since crime datawas ever recorded.
We encourage you to subscribe to Asher’s Substack and read his entire post about the new crimestatistics yourself. Here’s what he had to say about the numbers:
“The 2024 data adds confidence that 2025 will feature the lowest murder rate ever recorded. A decline of around 10 percent in 2025 would place this year even with 2014 as the lowest murder rate ever recorded. Any larger decline in 2025 would give this year the “record”. Data from the RTCI puts it at down 20 percent through May. In other words, the odds that 2025 will have the lowest murder rate ever recorded have gone from ‘plausible’ to ‘more likely than not’.”
-Jeff Asher, Co-founder of AH Datalytics, author of Jeff-alytics Substack
Data vs. Perceptions
There are numerous theories behind the nationwide decline in crime, including long-term shifts in law enforcement strategies, community-based crime reduction efforts, lower unemployment rates, broader social shifts, and more. What makes the data most striking is how sharply it contrasts with public perception. The data may be most striking because they are in contrast to what many Americans believe about crime today.
Gallup has polled Americans on their perceptions of crime for more than 35 years. Between 2020 and 2023, more than 70% of respondents consistently believed that crime in the U.S. was rising year over year.
However, perception may also be catching up to this data. In late 2024, Gallup reported that Americans’ perceptions of crime in the U.S. have shown notable improvement year-over-year, with the share of people who believe crime is increasing dropping by 13 percentage points.
Notably, polling also shows a huge partisan gap in American perceptions of crime:
A clear trend emerges in the context of presidential administrations. Overall, partisans tend to view crime more negatively when the sitting president is from the opposing party, and more positively when the president is from their own party.
We recognize that—despite these historic decreases—every crime matters to its victims. And the feeling of not being safe is also meaningful. Still, we see this data as a reason to be optimistic.
While we are still a year away from official numbers for 2025, we hope that these 2024 statistics and early predictions for the continued downward trend in 2025 continue and feel more tangible in day to day life.